BTC Rebound to Key Position, ETF Capital Inflow Becomes Support

This week, the Bitcoin market showed a positive trend, opening at $82,562.50 and finally closing at $86,092.94, with a weekly increase of 4.28%. This marks the second consecutive week of gains, although trading volume has decreased for three weeks in a row. Currently, the BTC price is operating within a descending channel, nearing the upper boundary of the channel, showing signs of a potential breakout.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this week sent a moderate signal, indicating that it will closely monitor economic conditions and take action when necessary. At the same time, the Fed hinted that there may be two rate cuts this year, and this news has had a positive impact on market sentiment.

With the stabilization of the US stock market, the inflow of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs has significantly increased, providing strong support for BTC prices and prompting a rebound to the upper edge of the descending channel. Next week, the US will release PCE data, which may become an important reference for the direction of BTC prices.

In terms of the macroeconomy, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged, keeping the key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth forecast and pointed out the main reasons for the current upward inflation. At the same time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting from April 1, significantly reducing the cap on the reduction of US Treasury bonds, which is seen as a positive signal for the bond market.

Despite the fundamental economic issues remaining unresolved, the market reacted positively to the softening stance of the Federal Reserve. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.25%, while the three major U.S. stock indices all posted gains for the week. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and gold prices increased for three consecutive weeks, reflecting that some funds continue to choose safe-haven assets.

In the cryptocurrency market, there has been a significant change in the fund flow of the BTC spot ETF. After five consecutive weeks of outflows, this week has seen a notable net inflow of $1.05 billion over five trading days, becoming an important driving force for the rebound in BTC prices. Stablecoins have also shown positive inflows, with a total of $1.95 billion flowing in across all channels, providing additional support to the market.

As the price rebounds, market selling pressure has significantly weakened, dropping to 114,992 BTC. Long-term holders have increased their positions by 73,000 BTC, while the exchange inventory has decreased by nearly 7,000 BTC, indicating that long-term investors maintain confidence in the current price. The selling pressure from short-term holders is being continuously absorbed, and the market is showing a positive supply-demand relationship.

According to market cycle indicators, BTC is currently in a rising continuation phase, and market sentiment is gradually improving. However, investors still need to closely monitor future U.S. economic data and policy changes, as well as ETF fund flows, as these factors will continue to impact BTC's price movements.