Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a positive trend, with Bitcoin prices once breaking through the $115,000 mark, setting a new high. Behind this surge, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has become a key factor.

Market data shows that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 93.6%. This expectation is primarily due to the latest employment data falling short of expectations and signs of continued easing in inflation. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve may consecutively cut rates from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter of this year, lowering the target range for the benchmark interest rate to 3.5%-3.75%.

This potential monetary easing policy has had a significant impact on the encryption currency market. Bitcoin not only broke through $115,000 but also briefly reached a high of $115,700. However, the range between $116,000 and $116,600 remains an important resistance level.

It is worth noting that market volatility is significantly decreasing. The 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to 36.5%, marking a new low in nearly five months. This may indicate that market sentiment is stabilizing.

At the same time, although Ethereum has maintained a consolidation pattern, the participation of institutional investors is continuously increasing, indicating that professional investors' confidence in encryption assets is strengthening.

Overall, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to be an important factor influencing the cryptocurrency market. Expectations of interest rate cuts may not only enhance dollar liquidity but also reduce financing costs, further increasing the attractiveness of encryption assets. However, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor changes in the global economic situation and regulatory environment.