Recently, the financial market has seen new changes in expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy direction. Goldman Sachs' latest research report predicts that the Fed may implement three cuts of 25 basis points in 2025 and two more cuts in 2026. This prediction indicates that the terminal interest rate may drop to the range of 3%-3.25%, lower than the current level of 4.25%-4.5%.

At the same time, the latest Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) released by the United States shows that inflationary pressures have eased. The CPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, slowing from the previous month's increase of 0.3%, in line with economists' expectations. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a 2.2% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices remained stable.

The pricing in the interest rate futures market reflects that traders' expectations for the Fed's policy are also changing. According to calculations by LSEG, the market expects a 93% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next month, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7%. This expectation has increased compared to before. In addition, traders expect a cumulative rate cut of about 65 basis points this year, higher than last week's prediction of 60 basis points.

However, there are still differing views within the market regarding the actions the Fed may take. Some opinions suggest that, given the recent weak employment data, the Fed might adopt more aggressive rate cuts. However, some analysts point out that the Fed may remain cautious, especially with the upcoming Jackson Hole annual central bank economic symposium, where Fed Chair Powell's speech may provide more clues for the market.

Overall, the changes in current economic data and adjustments in market expectations are adding new uncertainties to the Fed's future policy decisions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor upcoming economic data releases and statements from Fed officials to more accurately predict the direction of monetary policy.