Does XRP Have a Chance to Reach 4 USD in October?

In mid-July, XRP was considered a strong candidate to reach the 4 USD mark this year, as it traded at a 52-week peak of 3.65 USD. However, the crypto market is always rapidly changing, and so far, XRP has fallen below 3 USD. So, does XRP still have a chance to reach 4 USD by next October?

1. Legal Environment – A Decisive Factor in Trend One of the key factors affecting the current price of XRP is the legal context. In early August, Ripple – the company behind XRP – reached a settlement agreement in the years-long lawsuit with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States (SEC). Coupled with the crypto-friendly stance of the Trump administration, this brings greater legal clarity for XRP. The clarity regarding legal issues has been seen as a positive signal, paving the way for a series of blockchain and cryptocurrency initiatives that were previously stalled to be restarted. At the same time, this also raises hopes that the SEC will soon approve spot ETF funds related to XRP. However, the reality has not met expectations. In mid-August, the SEC delayed its decision to approve a series of XRP ETFs, pushing the deadline to mid-October. If these ETFs are approved, the likelihood of XRP reaching the 4 USD mark will be much higher.
2. The Participation of Financial Institutions – There Are Still Many Gaps Another important factor is the level of participation of financial institutions and institutional investors in XRP. Theoretically, Ripple has partnered with many big names, and there are even reports that BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) may use the XRP blockchain for asset tokenization initiatives. Additionally, Ripple recently spent 200 million USD to acquire the stablecoin payment platform Rail. However, looking at the actual data from the DeFi market, XRP has not yet made a significant mark. According to data from DeFiLlama, XRP ranks only 48th in total value locked (TVL), with about 100 million USD – a very small figure compared to the market capitalization of around 170 billion USD. Similarly, from the perspective of institutional investment, XRP has not really stood out. According to the latest report from CoinShares ( in August ), 77% of capital from institutional investors is flowing into Ethereum ( ETH ), 15% into Bitcoin ( BTC ), while XRP only accounts for 3%. Even Solana ( SOL ) is attracting more capital flows than XRP.
3. What Does the Prediction Market Say? Online prediction markets are a useful reference tool that reflects the expectations of investors. Currently, the Kalshi platform believes that: 47% chance XRP reaches 3.75 USD in 2025. 39% chance it reaches 4 USD. 17% chance it reaches 5 USD. However, this is the probability for the entire year of 2025. In the short term, that is, in the next 30 days, this probability falls significantly because the time frame is too short to create a breakout. For XRP to reach 4 USD in October, the crypto market needs a strong catalyst.
4. The Fed's interest rates – A factor that could change the situation The positive thing is that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently hinted at the possibility of a rate cut. This could become a catalyst for a crypto market explosion, as rate cuts often encourage capital flows into risky assets like crypto. If this happens, XRP certainly has the opportunity to break through in the short term. Conclusion XRP still has potential, but the road to the 4 USD mark in October 2025 is not easy. Investors should carefully weigh the risks and opportunities, closely monitor legal factors, the moves of financial institutions, as well as the monetary policy of the Fed. With high volatility, XRP can bring significant profits, but it also carries considerable risks for the investment portfolio.